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Estimation Theory Questions and Answers

1.

Let \(x_{1} = 2.2,\ x_{2} = 4.3,\ x_{3} = 3.1,\ x_{4} = 4.5,\ x_{5} = 1.1\) and \(x_{6} = 5.7\) be the observed values of a random sample of size 6 from a \(U(\theta - 1, \theta + 4)\) distribution, where \(\theta \in (0, \infty)\) is unknown. Then a maximum likelihood estimate of \(\theta\) is equal to

Exam Year(s)

GATE Mathematics - 2015,

Answer: A

A maximum likelihood estimate is 1.8.

The density of \(U(\theta - 1, \theta + 4)\) is \(\frac{1}{5}\) on an interval of fixed length 5, so the likelihood is \((1/5)^{6}\) whenever all observations lie in the interval, and 0 otherwise. Any \(\theta\) that keeps the sample inside is an MLE.

\[ \begin{aligned} \theta - 1 &\le x_{(1)} = 1.1 \Rightarrow \theta \le 2.1 \\ \theta + 4 &\ge x_{(6)} = 5.7 \Rightarrow \theta \ge 1.7 \end{aligned} \]

Every \(\theta\) in \([1.7, 2.1]\) maximises the likelihood, and 1.8 is the only option in that range. 2.3, 3.1 and 3.6 make \(\theta - 1\) exceed the smallest observation 1.1, giving likelihood 0.

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2.

The forecasts on the basis of a time series are :

Exam Year(s)

MH SET - 2023, SET Exam - 2023,

Answer: B

Time series forecasts are true to some extent.

A time series forecast projects the trend, seasonal and cyclical components found in past data into the future. Its random or irregular component cannot be predicted, and the future may not follow past patterns, so forecasts are approximations with some error.

They are never guaranteed to be 100% true, yet they are useful and often fairly close, so 'never true' is also wrong. Since the first and third options contradict each other, 'All of the above' cannot be right.

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